Oscar Predictions 2014

Brace yourselves, Oscar night is coming.

This year, I feel like I have no idea what is about to happen.  Yes, I’ve seen all the Best Picture nominees, but I haven’t seen much outside of that prestigious circle.  Life as a new mom has made seeing movies tougher.  A movie date is much more expensive when you add in the cost of a babysitter, so my husband and I don’t see as many as we used to.  All through Oscar season, I sped off the theaters to see the nominated movies when I got the chance, leaving my husband and son to fend for themselves many evenings.  They have been very supportive of my movie habits.  Perhaps I’ll make them little Oscars for best family.

But I digress, here are my predictions!  I wouldn’t take them to Vegas, but let’s have fun:

Film Editing

The editing in Whiplash is a huge role in the tone of the film. Who even voted American Sniper into this category?

Cinematography

I predict The Grand Budapest Hotel, but wouldn’t be surprised, or mind if Birdman won.

Adapted Screenplay

I really want to see Whiplash take this.

Original Screenplay

I’m torn. My head says The Grand Budapest Hotel, yet my heart cries Birdman.  The Academy is more likely to vote with their heads.

Animated Feature

The Lego Movie.  The fact that it wasn’t nominated just shows how out of touch the Academy has become.  Maybe How to Train Your Dragon 2, it was great too.

Supporting Actress

Stone and Knightley seem unlikely, as the Academy seems to favor age over beauty (Jennifer Lawrence excluded). I have yet to see Wild, but I feel Patricia Arquette’s performance is worthy.

Supporting Actor

J.K. Simmons better win that Oscar or I will be throwing a chair at someone’s head.

Actress

Sorry, I’ve only seen 2 of the nominations.  However, isn’t it about time for Julianne Moore?

Actor

Eddie Redmayne.  Even though it is total Oscar-bait, it is great.  I’d bet money on his Hawking performance.

Director

I think this is a toss-up between Alejandro González Iñárritu for Birdman and Richard Linklater for his 12 year devotion to Boyhood.  

Best Picture

What I think should win: Birdman.  Easily what I believe is best and just happens to be my personal favorite.

What will probably win: Who knows?  Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel lead the pack with 9 nominations each, so they seem most logical.  Boyhood could win in acknowledgment of its 12 year commitment to one beautiful movie.  I would love to see Whiplash win, but it is the underdog.  The Academy could just decide to love America more than movies and give it to American Sniper. Or they could pull an Argo and give it to Selma for snubbing Ava DuVernay out of a directing nomination, like they did to Affleck two years ago.

Sorry to rant.  One thing is for certain, I am going to be rooting for this Oscar nominated song: Everything Is Awesome.  Happy Oscar night!

Selma

Ava DuVernay’s Selma focuses on a small chapter of Dr. Martin Luther King’s fight for civil rights.  He and a group of activists go Selma, a small town in Alabama, after a church is bombed there, killing four little girls.  In Selma, they hope to secure equal voting rights for African Americans by raising awareness through a massive march from Selma to Alabama’s capital, Montgomery. However, they face violent opposition against the white locals, including the mayor and police.

Some may be confused about the focus on voting rights, since African Americans technically had the right to vote after the civil war.  The problem King and his activists were pushing to solve is the fact that so many African Americans were often unable to register to vote, many times through discrimination and intimidation by the local authorities.  We understand this better in a key scene near the beginning of the film where Anne Lee Cooper (Oprah Winfrey) applies to register and the man running the office gives her an unnecessary quiz.  Cooper fares well, reciting the entire preamble, until he asks her to name every county judge in Alabama, then denies her application, like he has so many times before.  It is disheartening to see, but far from the greatest injustice shown in this film.

As the film progresses, we watch Dr. King (David Oyelowo) and his team plan their moves and we see how Selma’s authorities bring them down.  Over and over, King rallies his troops, prepares them for a protest, and things don’t go right.  Sometimes the activists emerge with only a few beaten.  Other times, there are casualties.

The turning point comes when the protesters first try to march to Montgomery, without King in attendance, and are violently attacked by police.  Some are on horseback, some use tear gas, batons, whips, even bats wrapped with barbed wire.  And cameras capture it all, broadcasting the disturbing images all over the nation.  The incident became known as Bloody Sunday.  It gains King and his crew sympathy and helps bring the whole nation together for their cause.

The moments of violence in this film may be hard to watch for some viewers.  It is heartbreaking to watch these peaceful protests become absolute hell.  The protesters, of all ages, run and scream fearing for their lives and the authorities don’t let up.  It’s barbaric and inhumane and may strike a deep chord.  All around me in the theater were gasps, sobs and people covering their faces unable to watch any more.

I’m sorry to say that I did not feel that Selma was as poignant and moving as DuVernay hoped it would be.  I do believe Selma tells an important story and should be seen by the masses.  Its Best Picture nomination will ensure its place in film history.  However, after last year’s big winner, 12 Years a Slave, it is hard to make a racially charged drama that can really compete.  Unlike 12 Years a Slave, I did not find Selma to be visually striking, emotionally overwhelming or full of spellbinding performances.  Sadly, I rarely found Oyelowo’s performance to be worthy of such an important American.  However, he does light up during the speech scenes, especially during poor Jimmy’s funeral.

What I did leave the theater with, is an idea on how history will remember us for our actions now.  Toward the end of the film, we see the march finally go on.  It plays like old footage of the historical event.  It is a joyous moment and we celebrate it with all who are marching.  Yet, we on the sidelines we still see those angry white people, flipping off the cameras and waving Confederate flags.  What a horrible way to be remembered in history, as the guy trying to rain on the parade.  As events unfold around us in our lives, I hope each of us can keep the future in perspective and not wind up being the one trying to spread hate in the background.  Our grandchildren would be so ashamed.

“It is unacceptable that they use their power to keep us voiceless.”