Oscar Predictions 2013

The big night is almost here!  So without much fluff, here are my official predictions for tomorrow night’s Academy Awards:

Best Visual Effects

Obviously Gravity.

Best Production Design

This is a toss-up, I can justify any of these films winning.  So why not American Hustle?

Best Film Editing

The way those long-shots were built better earn Gravity this award.

Best Animated Feature

Sadly, I only go to see two of the five nominees: Frozen and The Croods.  Of those, I’d choose Frozen easily.  However, knowing that The Wind Rises is Miyazaki’s last film may tip the votes in his favor.

Best Original Song

Let it go, let it go! I haven’t been able to stop listening to that song for weeks.

Best Adapted Screenplay

I have not seen Before Midnight yet, and I doubt a screenplay with a few extra hundred f-words will win, so I would choose 12 Years a Slave.

Best Original Screenplay

Her is such an original story that flows so well, I would love to see it win.  My second choice, Nebraska.

Best Supporting Actress

I bet Jennifer Lawrence will win again, for blowing up the science oven, but part of me feels Nyong’o could easily take it.

Best Supporting Actor

All the hype is with Jared Leto, and I agree it was a great performance.  Everyone else is too close to call.

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett was the strongest part of Blue Jasmine, she stands apart from the pack.

Best Actor

Way too close to make a confident call.  DiCaprio is overdue, Dern has seniority, Bale and Ejiofor both guide their films, yet McConaughey  seems to be the favorite.  I pick McConaughey.

Best Director

I see no front runner, so why not Steve McQueen.

Best Picture

If I’ve learned anything from studying the Oscars, it’s that this category can be unpredictable.  But if I had to make an educated guess, I’d take 12 Years a Slave, though I would not be surprised if American Hustle or Gravity wins over the Academy voters.

No matter what the results, I’m sure Ellen Degeneres will be a delightful host, so let’s all have a fun Oscar night.  Enjoy!

Dallas Buyers Club

Based on a true story, Ron Woodroof (Matthew McConaughey) leads a fast and rough life.  He’s an electrician working in dangerous areas, a swindling gambler at the local rodeo, drinks heavily, snorts coke and has plenty of loose women.  When we first meet him, there is no denying his physical condition is atrocious.  He is sickly skinny with sunken eyes and blacks out the moment he gets home to his trailer.  After an accident at work, he wakes up in a hospital to the news that he is HIV positive and only has thirty days to live.

At the time, 1985, HIV and AIDS were stigmatized as a homosexual disease, so the news is a lot for a rough neck cowboy to take in.  After some initial denial and tension with his homophobic friends, Ron takes action.  He does some research and tries to get AZT, but the drug is only in clinical trials.  His searching for it leads him to Mexico, where a doctor is doing his own research on AIDS.  After nursing Ron back to a more manageable health, the doctor gives Ron a mixture of drugs and vitamins to smuggle into the United States to sell to others who are HIV positive or fighting AIDS.  With the help of a transvestite he met at the hospital, Rayon (Jared Leto), Ron takes to the streets of Dallas trying to give the HIV and AIDS community a better chance at life.  But the FDA, muddled in red tape, money and pushes out useless drugs, tries to shut Ron down.

Alright, alright, alright, let’s talk about Mathew McConaughey.  Between Dallas Buyers Club and his unforgettable cameo on The Wolf of Wall Street, this seems to be his best year yet.  He seems to have finally broken out of the pretty-boy rom-com roles and into more serious acting.  Best of all, his characters lately always come across as a bad-ass, always in control even when things are not going his way.  And his physical transformation to portray Ron is astounding and no doubt took some real commitment.  I just hope it was safe, we want him around for a long time.

And then there’s Jared Leto. He portrays Rayon, a HIV positive transvestite with a heart of gold that Ron meets in the hospital.  Right away, we see that he is genuinely kind, even when Ron is clearly uncomfortable with a homosexual in makeup befriending him.  What makes this such a great role is Rayon’s problems with drug abuse and his uneasy relationship with his father.  The hype has been with Leto long before his nomination, I’m curious to see how the Academy will vote.

Dallas Buyers Club is nominated for six Oscars including Best Picture, film editing, original screenplay.  McConaughey has earned nomination for lead actor and Leto for supporting actor, a first Oscar nomination for either of them.  The film is also nominated for makeup and hair styling, and between Leto’s makeup and whatever they did to McConaughey to make him look so sickly at times, I believe this film has secured the award.

Honestly, I feel a bit indifferent about this film as a whole.  I agree that this is a good movie, it is an important story that deserves to be told and the acting all around is great, but I just did not find myself connecting with it.  Maybe it was the way Ron seems kind of like a Texan Robin Hood, smuggling good drugs in and the FDA comes across like a money fueled Prince John scrambling to shut Ron down.  However, I would not discourage others from seeing it.

“What?  Hook me up to the morphine drip, let me fade on out?  Nah.  Sorry, lady, but I prefer to die with my boots on.”